When I was a kid, a whole year on the calendar seemed to take forever. 365 days is a LONG time when you’re a kid, and now that I’m older, it seems that the calendar turns a lot quicker than I would like.
Imagine how quickly you would feel time fly by if the calendar year were only 10 days?
Well, it shouldn’t be that hard to imagine, because investors experienced a 10-day calendar year in 2025.
What do I mean?
Well, if you’re an investor, and you blinked in 2025, your investment returns would’ve been non-existent – Just 10 trading days made all the difference between a strong year and a painful one.
Think about that, just 10 measly days – that’s it. Miss them, and you’re screwed:
- The S&P 500’s 10 best days contributed roughly +32% to returns.
- Heaven forbid you missed those 10 days by sitting out and waiting for things to “get better” because you would’ve been down around -12%.
2025 proved once again that the lessons of history remain undefeated, and that trying to time the market is a fool’s game.
I fear that some investors just refuse to learn that lesson and must be constantly reminded that trying to time the market is the gateway to failure for their financial plan and goals.
How much evidence does one person need for cripes' sake? Zoom out from the micro-lesson of 2025 and look at the last 30 years’ worth of evidence that market timing doesn’t work, and you see a scary picture for those who practice market timing.
Here are a few highlights for those poor suckers who still believe that anyone, much less the mainstream media full of their talking head “experts” who claim to know where the markets are heading:
Over the past 30 years:
- Stay fully invested: $100,000 grew to about $2.7 million in the S&P 500 Index.
- Miss the ten best days: Congratulations – your returns were cut in half.
- Miss the 20-30 best days: Congratulations – kiss your compound returns goodbye.
- Miss the best 60 days (out of 30 years, mind you!): Congratulations – now your returns were barely positive, and inflation absolutely crushed your purchasing power – what a shrewd investor you are!
Let me break it down for you in a nice visual -
Look, I get it, and I empathize with your struggles to overcome the mainstream media’s fear-mongering. No, the world is not going to end soon.
Investing is not linear; it zigs and zags. Your investment journey will not always see the sun; sometimes clouds of uncertainty will be present.
Your brain works against you. It wants you to flee your investments at the first sign of danger. It constantly fights against you, but here’s the catch – some of the best days in the markets show up right after the worst ones.
You want to sell to “preserve your capital”, but you risk missing one of the market’s “best days”.
This is not theory – it’s human behavior.
The lesson learned in 2025 wasn’t new. It simply reinforced an old one.
It’s at the most uncomfortable times in the equity markets, where the true value of the great companies that you own in your investment portfolio shines through.
Looking at investing through the lens of history, you quickly realize that more money will be made in bull markets than could ever be lost in bear markets.
Stay the course, my friends.
Look, I get it, and I empathize with your struggles to overcome the mainstream media’s fear-mongering. No, the world is not going to end soon.
Investing is not linear; it zigs and zags. Your investment journey will not always see the sun; sometimes clouds of uncertainty will be present.
Your brain works against you. It wants you to flee your investments at the first sign of danger. It constantly fights against you, but here’s the catch – some of the best days in the markets show up right after the worst ones.
You want to sell to “preserve your capital”, but you risk missing one of the market’s “best days”.
This is not theory – it’s human behavior.
The lesson learned in 2025 wasn’t new. It simply reinforced an old one.
It’s at the most uncomfortable times in the equity markets, where the true value of the great companies that you own in your investment portfolio shines through.
Looking at investing through the lens of history, you quickly realize that more money will be made in bull markets than could ever be lost in bear markets.
Stay the course, my friends.