It’s been garnering quite a bit of attention lately – AI and its potential impact on the employment rate in our economy.
According to a recent CBS News poll, quite a few Americans are worried that AI is coming for their jobs:
While the concern is real, I wonder if we are asking the right question about AI and job disruption. Perhaps a better question might be: What is the likely long-term impact of the economic disruption caused by AI, and have we ever seen this kind of disruption?
As history tells us, yes, we have seen this type of disruption before, and we are likely to see it again in the future, by something that we can’t even fathom today.
This type of disruption is nothing new to history; our economy has always lived in the shadows of disruption.
Let’s take a look:
1920’s
The rise of horseless carriages is what worried us at the beginning of the 19th century. How were we expected to survive this seismic economic shift when so many in the buggy industry would lose their jobs?
In a 1922 commencement speech (see headline above), the President of the Rockefeller Foundation, Raymond B. Fosdick, wondered:“Can education run fast enough” for the economy to beat these machines?
1930’s
In the middle of one of the worst economic depressions ever to grace this planet, the headlines at the time reflected our fears of “machines” taking over.
One of the greatest thinkers of our time, Albert Einstein, even mused in 1931 that “the great distress of current times as the result of man-made machines”.
Not even a great depression could derail the fear of machines taking over our lives.
1940’s
We can all agree that we were a little distracted by what was going on in the world, but that didn’t seem to quell the fear of machines taking over.
One of the more interesting developments of this decade is that the movement toward automation had finally caught the government's attention, and they wanted in.
Senator Joseph C. O’Mahoney proposed the idea of taxing employers using more than average automation to address the loss of tax revenue from displaced workers:
If it’s one thing Uncle Sam can’t stand, it’s loss of tax revenue.
1950’s
The War is over, and the economy is booming – still, worries persisted that there would be nothing left for workers to do as automation continued to hit the economy.
Ford Motor Company's replacement of assembly-line workers and the advent of automatic elevators would be just a few of the automations that continued to stoke fears about more “technology”.
1960’s/1970’s
Combine a slowing post-WWII economy with an economy growing more dependent on automation and technology, and you’ve fanned the flames of fear into a full-on panic inferno.
Adding to the panic were technology and worker displacement, which were the social unrests taking place across the entire country. One of the most turbulent times in our country’s history.
Anytime you have panic in the streets, as you did in the ’60s and ‘70s, preexisting fears were likely to get magnified, and that is exactly what happened with technology and automation.
What was unique about these two decades is that even white-collar workers were beginning to feel the pressure – from ATM’s threatening bank tellers to photocopiers, which were labeled as poison for writers, academics, and publishers.
Time Magazine even got in on the action and ran a front cover story on the subject that predicted shorter weeks and fewer jobs:
1980’s/1990’s
As if on a broken record from the previous six decades, the 80s and 90s were strewn with publications regurgitating fears that workers would suffer.
Automation was everywhere, and it was going to take down the entire economy:
21st Century
For all the great innovations this century has given mankind (the internet and smartphone being the biggest), the fear of displacement has remained constant. Fear of technology has always existed and is likely to persist in the future.
Yes, AI is and will be a disruptor. It’s simply the next one in a great line of disruptors going all the way back to the beginning of the 19th century.
As history teaches us, the debate will center on AI taking jobs from those who are most vulnerable to its advancements. But I get it – it’s easier to imagine someone losing their jobs to technology than it is to imagine many people gaining jobs that haven’t been invented yet.
Believe in the future – this is the way.
Stay the course, my friends.